A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
